Commercial Surveys

Commercial Surveys

An Analysis of the Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Propane and Urea Exports

Document Type : research

Authors
1 , Master in Economics, Shahid Beheshti University
2 Associate Professor in Shahid Beheshti University
3 Assistant Professor, Shahid Beheshti University
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of global oil price volatility on the exports of two selected energy-related products, namely urea and propane in the Iranian economy. These two products hold a special position in the country's foreign trade due to their high volume of production and export. Export and oil price data from 2003 to 2023 were collected. To analyze oil price volatility , the ARDL model was used to examine the effects of various factors on the exports of urea and propane. The results indicated that product price, the real exchange rate, and economic sanctions have a negative and significant effect on the export of these products. However, improving the production capacity of these products leads to an increase in their exports. In addition, the results revealed that oil price fluctuations have a significant effect on the exports of these goods. Specifically, an increase in oil price volatility tends to result in a decrease in the export supply of these products from Iran to its target countries.
 
Keywords

Subjects


 
Atarodi, S., Dehghan, A., & Asgari, M. (2018). The effect of exchange rate fluctuations and oil prices on the export-oriented industries of the country’s capital market: Case study of stock companies of petrochemical industry. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 8(1), 136-142.
Çakır, M. A., Recepoğlu, M., & Hayaloğlu, P. (2024), An Econometric Study on Oil Prices, Exchange Rate and Exports: A Case of Russia, Azerbaijan and Indonesia, Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi, 10(2).
Hamilton, James D. (2009), Understanding Crude Oil Prices, The Energy Journal, 30(2). 179-206.
Hasanov, E, Aliyeva, L, (2023), Dynamic Interplay: Investigating The Effects of Atmospheric Circulation and Rotation on Jupiter’s Great Red Spot, Academic Journal of Science, Engineering and Technology, 6(3)
Krugman, Paul (1980), Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade, American Economic Review, 70(5), 950-959.
Niko Eqbal, Ali Akbar, Ghandali Alikhani, Nadia, Naderi, Ismail (2013). The dynamic relationship between Iran’s crude oil price and methanol price: VECM model. Journal of Energy Economics, 36(2), 145-167. (In Persian)
Rashidi Nia, Maryam, Ahmadi, F., and Mohammadi, S. (2023). Analyzing Iran’s Export Opportunities in the Petrochemical Industry Using a Combined Approach of Decision Support Model and Economic Complexity in ECOTA Member Countries. Journal of Research in Technology and Economic Sciences of Iran, 14(2), 45-67. (In Persian)
Samuelson, Paul A. (1970) Foundations of Economic Analysis, Harvard University Press.
Varahrami, Vida, Arab Mazar, Abbas, and Hamzeh, Faezeh (2019). Comparison of the effect of foreign direct investment on the exports of selected petrochemical industry products (Urea, Polyethylene, Methanol, Propane). Journal of Energy Economics Studies, 15(63), 99-139. (In Persian)
Varahrami, Vida, and Fakoor, Ali. (2021). Determining and estimating the factors affecting the export supply of methanol petrochemical product to export destinations (UAE, Turkey, China, and India) using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Economic Strategy, 10(36), 109-144. (In Persian)
Zhaoyong Sun, Z., Cai, X., & Huang, W.-C. (2022). The impact of oil price fluctuations on consumption, output, and investment in China’s industrial sectors. Energies, 15(9), 3411.
 
 
Volume 23, Issue 132 - Serial Number 132
July and August 2026
Pages 1-20

  • Receive Date 04 August 2025
  • Revise Date 20 September 2025
  • Accept Date 04 October 2025