دیده‌بانی روندهای مؤثر بر صنعت ایران برپایه یک روش آینده‌نگاری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه پژوهشهای صنعت، موسسه مطالعات و پژوهشهای بازرگانی، تهران، ایران

2 مربی، گروه پژوهشهای صنعت، موسسه مطالعات و پژوهشهای بازرگانی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

اولویت‌های ملی منعکس‌کننده ساختارها و نقاط قوت و همچنین منافع صنایع تولیدی غالب در اقتصاد است. بسیاری از تحلیل‌های ملی اخیر در مورد آینده صنعت، فعالیت‌های صنعتی را برجسته می‌کنند که انتظار می‌رود در آینده درنتیجه روندهای سطح بالای جهانی و پیشرفت‌های فناوری نوظهور برجسته‌تر شوند. ازاین‌رو پژوهش حاضر بر آن است تا یک نمای کلی از عوامل شکل‌دهنده آینده و روندهای مهم را در حوزه صنعت در ایران را ارائه ‌کند که بر سیستم‌های صنعتی و تولیدی تأثیر می‌گذارد. این پژوهش به دنبال پیاده‌سازی چارچوب سه مرحله‌ای آینده‌نگاری اف‌اس‌اس‌اف (چارچوب حسی‌سازی نشانه‌های آینده) به‌عنوان ابزار دیده‌بانی روندهای آینده است. در مرحله اول با استفاده از مصاحبه و پرسشنامه باز و پس از پایش و ادغام و جمع‌بندی کارشناسانه 21 روند موثر بر آینده صنعت ایران شناسایی شدند. در مرحله دوم با کمک نرم‌افزار میک‌مک به‌منظور تحلیل اثرات متقابل اقدام گردید. در ابتدا چگونگی تاثیرگذاری روندها تحلیل شد و درنهایت در مرحله پایانی روندهای راهبردی مشخص گردیدند. بر اساس تحلیل یافته‌های پژوهش و خروجی نرم‌افزار میک‌مک روند‌های «تغییر در سیاست صنعتی خارجی»، «بهبود تولید انسان‌محور»، «کاهش اثرات زیست‌محیطی و ارزیابی چرخه حیات» و «تأکید بر رفاه اجتماعی و پایه اقتصادی زندگی از طریق تولید» به‌عنوان روندهای راهبردی شناسایی شدند. روندهای شناسایی‌شده آینده صنعت در ایران بیانگر مسیرهای شکل‌دهی و ترسیم آینده‌های بدیل پیشروی صنعت ایران است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Monitoring Trends Affecting Iran's Industry Based on A Foresight Method

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohsen Keshavarz Turk 1
  • Mostafa Mohammadi 2
  • Meisam Bashiri 2
1 Industry Research Department, Trade Studies and Research Institute, Tehran, Iran
2 Department of Industry Research, Trade Studies and Research Institute, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

National priorities reflect the structures and strengths as well as interests of the dominant manufacturing industries in the economy. Many recent national analyzes of future of industry highlight industry activities that are expected to become more prominent in the future as a result of global top-level trends and emerging technological developments. Therefore, the current research aims to provide an overview of the factors shaping the future and important trends in the field of industry in Iran, which affect the industrial and production systems. This research seeks to implement a 3-step foresight framework called FSSF (Future Signals Sense-Making Framework) as a monitoring tool for future trends. In the first stage, by using interviews and open questionnaires and after monitoring and integration and summarising collected data, 21 effective trends on the future of Iran's industry were identified. In the second stage, mutual effects were analyzed by using MicMac software, and firstly, how the trends influence was analyzed, and finally, in the final stage, the strategic trends were identified. Based on the analysis of the research findings and the output of MicMac software, the trends of "change in foreign industrial policy", "improvement of human-centered production", "reduction of environmental effects and life cycle assessment" and "emphasis on social welfare and the economic basis of life through production" identified as Strategic trends. The identified trends of the future of industry in Iran indicate the ways of shaping and designing alternative futures for Iran's industry.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Future Trends / Monitoring / Iran's Industry / FSSF Foresight Method
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